Candidates for Wisconsin governor 2026: (L-R) Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong, Republican Tom Tiffany, Democrats Kelda Roys, David Crowley, and Joel Brennan. Courtesy Milwaukee Magazine.
I’ve been searching for post-debate polling on the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Francesca Hong concurrently got a big polls boost, but not necessarily from the debate.
So here’s actual post-debate polling. I do like Hong, and if she could capture the governorship I’d be overjoyed. But as presidential candidate Kamala Harris learned, stuff like joy, cool as it is, won’t win an election
General elections are very different ballgames than primaries. Hong has built a sort of momentum with her big polling lead over the other contenders. But I’m still not confident she can win a general election outside of her very enthused Milwaukee-Madison strongholds (BTW, I know those places pretty well. They’re the two cities I’ve lived in during my whole 70-plus year life as a Wisconsin resident).
Sorry if you think I’m getting pragmatic, or “losing my spine,” a typical diss of those who take time to think or express concern about election dynamics. But at this urgent point we need to focus on who can beat Tiffany.
According to Wisconsin swing voters, that would appear to be Kelda Roys, an accomplished and well-defined progressive legislator. The Shepherd Express, a very left-leaning Milwaukee publication, just endorsed her along with MKE C.E. David Crowley.
So, I don’t understand reports of Roys still only getting 2% support.
I’m not a swing voter, I’m a strong liberal who almost invariably votes democratic, and occasionally “independent.”
Let’s not forget: What I’m sharing here is a survey of Wisconsin swing voters, who do typically decide an election. And especially in a state like this, which is famously one of the most purple “swing states” in the nation.
State Sen. Kelda Roys (second from right) talks with Wisconsin constituents. Courtesy Kelda Roys campaign website.
State Sen. Kelda Roys is my personal choice as the best, most accomplished, and best prepared progressive candidate. She also seemed the best debater, which will be important later against Tiffany when people really start paying attention. Roys, an articulate feminist, also doesn’t have the baggage the other leading candidates have for Republicans to exploit. Here is her website, to get to know her and see her concrete plans, rather than rhetoric, on most of the issues voters care about: https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2026/08/05/murphys-law-crowley-is-only-one-who-could-beat-hong/
If you’re interested, Bruce Murphy, editor of Urban Milwaukee, makes a strong argument for David Crowley: https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2026/08/05/murphys-law-crowley-is-only-one-who-could-beat-hong/
The Atlantic magazine has an excellent recent feature by Russell Berman on Wisconsin as a state that’s actually receptive to extreme candidates. Think of the original progressive firebrand, Bob LaFollette, and then 1950s reactionary Commie-baiting Sen. Joe McCarthy. More recently, think uber-liberal maverick Senator Russ Feingold and then oppressive conservative Governor Scott Walker.
Sen. Russ Feingold.
Plus, Michigan just had a leftist win its Democratic Senate primary. Can he win the general election?
So just maybe we’ll actually bring Fran Hong to the big dance and then give her the keys to the governor’s office!
But things are still dicey, right now.
OK, here’s a report on the swing voter poll results. Apologies for the lack of graphics. (Website link below):
‘THE SWING VOTER PROJECT ELECTABILITY INDEX WISCONSIN DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY
WHO IS THE STRONGEST GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE? Swing voters selected whether they would support each Democratic candidate in general election against Republican Tom Tiffany after viewing debate clips.
ROYS LED 57% FIELD AFTER THE DEBATE SUPPORT INCREASED AFTER THE DEBATE ROYS 27pt Increase insupport BRENNAN 20p pts Increase support BARNES 16pts Increase ent support Increase CROWLEY 12pts 12 12 Increase support HONG 10p ots Increase support support’.
‘THE SWING VOTER PROJECT ISSUE INDEX WISCONSIN DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY ROYS LED SIX OF SEVEN ISSUE AREAS After each debate segment, swing voters selected the candidate they believed would do the better job on that. I POLICE ACCOUNTABILITY WINNER TAXES ON HIGH EARNERS ROYS PROPERTY TAXES ROYS SCHOOL SCHOOLVOUCHERS VOUCHERS ROYS AI DATA CENTERS ROYS ROYS CLOSING STATEMENTS …
ROYS BACKGROUND & ELECTABILITY ……………… BARNES’. ‘THE SWING VOTER PROJECT 42% 40% 7pts Post- Post-Debate Debate Change Francesca Hong 15pts Post-Debate Post- Change David Crowley 60% 21pts Post-Debate Post-DebateChange Debate Change Post Kelda Roys 56% Opts Post- -Debate Change 52% 2pts Post- Post-Debate Change Mandela Barnes Joel Brennan’.
‘Trial heats against the Republican opponent Democratic share before and after the debate Kelda Roys Joel Brennan 73 Mandela Barnes 72 David Crowley 69 Francesca Hong 62 10 57 20 30 40 50 Weighted Democratic share (%) pre post 60 Democratic share against Tom Tiffany before and after the debate 70 70 80’.
‘THE SWING VOTER 2. PROJECT Net candidate favorability: Hong recorded the lowest score in the field. Hong finished at +13 net favorability. Roys finished at +55, Brennan at +50, Barnes at +47, and Crowley at +21.
Net candidate favorability: before vs. after 50 47 40 post pre 30 30 20 BM 13 21 10 12 Hong Francesca Bames Mandela Candidates ordered Crowley David Kelda Roy’s latest Marquette primary: Hong 8% Bares 16%, Crowley, Brennan %
Here’s a link to the website this poll report comes from: https://theswingvoterpilot.com/wisconsin#learnmore‘
And a link to a trusted news source that reported this poll: https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/roys-campaign-swing-voter-project-poll-shows-roys-support-surges-in-post-debate-survey-of-undecided-voters/
Finally, here’s an extended quote from the aforementioned article from The Atlantic:
“But Democratic voters in Wisconsin are clearly thinking about the E-word too. As I followed Hennes on his canvassing route through Appleton, several people told him they liked Hong’s policies or were leaning toward her. But they also expressed some pause. “I like what she has to say,’ Bob Molitor, a 75-year-old retiree, said, ‘but we’ve got to get a winner.’
Wisconsin’s history suggests the concerns about Hong’s statewide appeal could be overstated. Michael Wagner, a University of Wisconsin political scientist, pointed me to research showing that voters do not punish more extreme candidates. Her chances might be better still in a midterm election when turnout is expected to be lower than a presidential year, he said. ‘An ideological extremist can absolutely win a statewide election in Wisconsin,’ Wagner said.”
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